Thoughts on the referendum
Quite a few friends/acquaintances have queried why I am in favour of remaining since many of my generation are against the EU.
I lived through last war as a child, worked in Germany with young Germans my own age, drank in bombed out Beer Kellers. Similar to bombed out Pubs in London. We worked on railway signalling principles towards a European wide system that was safe.
Likewise in Italy France and Holland. To me 65 years of peace is more important than all this "economic balls" being spouted by both sides. It is not about money, my enemies if I have any are not in Europe. My neighbours are.
So to me if it is not about money it has to be about being part of a wider community. I believe if we split up from the other member states, like any divorce, we may eventually build a few bridges, make some arrangements, financial and for the children, but " it is never the same after divorce"
All this anti French tripe is I admit amusing, some one said to me he was voting out because of our history, Richard the First fighting Wars etc. Richard the Lion heart never spoke a word of English,,only spoke French!
It seems to me listening to people that what they seem angry about is the 'free movement of migrants'. This is admittedly fed by disgusting levels of prejudice peddled by the Press.
This Migrant fear as I understand it, it falls into two distinct aspects, firstly, migrants outside the EU coming to the UK which has nothing at all to do with the EU. I say this as each country can decide that for itself anyway and it depends on all sorts of individual rules that each country has - for instance we have the Commonwealth, the French have North Africa etc. etc. etc.
Secondly, migrants from within the EU - that is to say citizens of France Spain Latvia and so on - they have a right to travel within the EU freely for whatever reason, and cannot be excluded from employment and/or benefits that we in the UK enjoy. Indeed many thousands of us are migrating to mainland Europe for work or indeed to learn a language.
No one seems to be saying If we vote to remain. we will continue to be a member of one of the world's biggest markets.
The EU has a quarter of Global GDP and is our biggest trading partner. 45% of UK exports go to Europe. 50% of our imports come from the EU.
EU Membership attracts massive foreign investment to the UK.
In 2012 a very large £937 Billion of Direct Foreign Investment came here. In 2014 that became a Trillion. 50% of that came from Europe.
In those terms the benefits of UK access to the European market far outweigh the cost of Membership of the EU which the Telegraph estimates at £17 Billion per annum. That gives rise to the figure of £350 million per week which Brexit suggests is lost to Europe.
Were we to leave would we save that £350 Million which is an exaggeration and not worth debating. Well would we save anything?
Any honest answer would have to be No !
Norway is a good example .That small country is not a Member of the EU but still pays £Millions to the EU for the privilege (and the necessity) of trading with it. That cost amounts to £128 per capita compared to the UK's £128 per capita as a full member.
By virtue of her need to trade with the EU Norway is obliged to accept all EU laws relating to the Internal Market but has no representation and participation in the decision- making process. Should the UK leave the EU that situation would apply to us given our own essential need to trade with the EU.
In all honesty "It is increasingly difficult to argue that people would be better off in the event of our departure." So said Bank of England Governor. To me " It is never worth risking what you cannot afford to lose in order to win what you do not need to have !"
Finally although it is tedious and I am old, if the vote is to leave I am seriously considering selling my two English homes and moving to Edinburgh. The Scots will quite possibly vote to stay in, then if the vote is OUT, leave The Union. By 2020 they will be back in the EU.
We will be a tiny Island then of no consequence, no Australia South Africa Canada etc to fall back on, they will go there own way as they already indicate. The major Financial institutions will leave for Frankfurt or Paris.
We shall matter as much to Europe in about the same ratio as the Isle of Wight does to the UK now.
Peter Rayner
Vernham Dean. June 2016.